New positions in the Australian mining industry are expected to grow by just over seven percent over the next five years.
The Australian Resources and Energy Employers Association (AREEA) said on the release of the Resources and Energy Workforce Forecast: 2025–2030, it represented a low figure.
AREEA said a new forecast warned future growth risks being undermined by weakening project pipelines, mounting red tape and tougher global competition for investment.
AREEA Chief Executive Steve Knott AM said the rebound put Queensland back in line with its 2023 forecast but warned that gains could be short-lived.
“Our report shows Queensland’s pipeline is recovering after last year’s slump, but the state faces a growing risk of job losses in its existing coal industry.
“The royalty regime, among the highest in the world, is eroding investor confidence and putting long-term coal operations at risk,” he said.
“If production contracts or projects are wound back prematurely, any new workforce gains could be wiped out.
“This would not only cost Queensland thousands of jobs, but also weaken one of its most important revenue streams for funding services and infrastructure.”
The forecast again underlined the sector’s critical contribution to the national economy and also cautioned against poor policy choices, Mr Knott said.
“Iron ore, coal and gas remain the bedrock of our export earnings, taxes and royalties. Without this sector, there would be no federal surpluses and no reliable funding for hospitals, schools, Medicare or aged care,” he said.
“Yet governments seem intent on burying the golden goose in regulatory red tape, lawfare and workplace relations experiments that make investors think twice about putting their money into Australian projects.
“Heightened climate activism, shifting policy settings, extended approval timelines and mounting red tape are all adding uncertainty to long-term planning and risk delaying critical developments.”
AREEA said 96 major projects are expected to commence production between late 2025 and 2030.
“Valued at $129.5 billion, these projects are forecast to create demand for 22,279 new operating-phase jobs, lifting the national resources and energy workforce by just 7.1% to 2030 – the lowest five-year outlook in more than half a decade.
‘While still substantial, the figures represent a softening compared with last year’s forecast of 108 projects and 27,070 jobs, and the 2023 forecast of 103 projects and 28,260 jobs.
‘The report also shows Australia’s project pipeline continues to diversify beyond traditional strengths, with 21 “other commodities” projects (alumina, graphite, phosphate, mineral sands) requiring around 3000 workers, alongside strong contributions from gold, copper and critical minerals.
‘Iron ore (8 projects / 3400 workers) and coal (7 projects / 3100 workers), however, both remain dependable growth drivers.’
The energy sector remained buoyant said AREEA.
‘Energy sector investment remains healthy – albeit slightly down on last year’s report – at 16 planned major projects worth $78.6bn in capex and forecast to require 2854 new production-related employees by 2030.’